Marvell

If you came here looking for the spreadsheet that gets Marvell to $1 trillion, I have bad news: I don’t have it. Maybe Korean BBQ and a few beers helps unlock a different valuation model?

TLDR

Marvell captures everything we want in the AI infra build out:

• Networking
• Custom ASICS
• Deep industry relationships (e.g. AWS, Nvidia)
• An exciting CEO, Matt Murphy, who calls it as it is - “this isn’t a PowerPoint. It is not a concept. We have 15 billion hours”.

The downside is that it’s expensive. Like 25x P/S expensive. That’s not fun. The good news is that the stock is down 22% from it’s June 18th high of $310. As of July 10th it’s around $244. The bad news for me is that I already entered at the high prices.

When trading fundamentals, I’m not a fan of timing the market. I’m long-term bullish on AI and Marvell. If Warren Buffet’s favorite holding period is forever and HFT firm’s holding period is 10e-9 seconds (that’s a nanosecond if you can’t quickly convert that in your head), then I’ll split the middle and put the holding period on this around 3 years. That’s long enough to let short-term business cycles play out, and long enough to let fundamentals to drive the narrative. And if the narrative breaks before then, we cut our losses. Never hold a losing position.

Data Center - $1.8B revenue, 76% of total revenue

The data center segment is growing 27% year-over-year and 11% sequentially. What makes the figure interesting is not its size but its slope. Management guided the segment to grow about 50% for the full year and framed the trajectory in plain terms: “we were 46% data center growth last year. The cherry on top is that Murphy is guiding to $10B in custom XPU sales in FY 29.

Growth is broad-based across AI-driven product lines, including strong 800G PAM4 demand, a rapid 1.6T ramp, scale-out switching, scale-up optics, DCI modules, and custom silicon. Management’s outlook points to multiple billion-dollar revenue opportunities emerging across optics, switching, and custom silicon, with custom revenue expected to grow more than 20% in FY27 and more than double in FY28 as multiple programs ramp.

Custom silicon: the XPUs Marvell co-designs for hyperscalers — did about $1.5 billion in FY2026, is guided to grow more than 20% in FY2027, and to more than double in FY2028 — a path management still underwrites to exceed $10 billion by FY2029 Since last quarter, Marvell won several new designs as customers continue expanding their adoption of custom silicon. Marvell expects new sockets to begin contributing incremental revenue following their typical development cycle of approximately 2 years. The level of custom engagement with key customers remains unprecedented. And Marvell continue to be deeply involved in a broad set of significant additional opportunities.

Interconnect: is inflecting even harder. Interconnect, the largest piece of the data center business, is now guided to grow more than 70% year over year in FY2027 — up from a prior 50% expectation — on strong 800G demand and a fast 1.6T ramp, with 400-gig-per-lane already demonstrated. Datacenter-interconnect modules now ship to all five major US hyperscalers and are tracking from roughly $500 million in FY2026 toward $1 billion in FY2028; scale-out switching more than doubles past $600 million in FY2027 on the 51.2T platform, with a $1 billion-plus FY2028 target and a 100T part in development. This is not a roadmap deck — “it is not a PowerPoint,” as Murphy put it, pointing to 15 billion field hours across four generations of silicon photonics and 224-gig SerDes in production. Optics, he argued, “is the future of data center connectivity,” and Marvell is one of “maybe a couple” of companies that can integrate at this level. The pitch to hyperscalers is simply that “we have all the pieces.”