Akyla AKYLA
Equity Research Special Industry Machinery — Laser Systems / Semicap Initiation of Coverage — BUY Last Updated: June 28, 2026

LPKF Laser & Electronics SE (LPKFF)

A call option on glass-core substrates: LIDE is the enabling glass-drilling step into the CPO/AI-packaging build-out, layered on a North Star margin recovery. We initiate with a constructive ~2x view to mid-2028.

Thesis

  1. LPKF is a small German laser-systems maker (FY2025 revenue EUR 115.3m, -6.2% YoY) that has become a direct call option on the glass-core-substrate / CPO-on-glass theme. Its LIDE (Laser-Induced Deep Etching) process is the enabling glass-drilling step for glass-core advanced packaging, and the FIRST LIDE production order was booked in Q1 2026 — the proof point that the optionality is becoming real.
  2. The 2026 revenue guide of EUR 105-120m EXPLICITLY EXCLUDES any Advanced-Packaging volume orders ('possible LIDE volume orders are deliberately excluded from forecasts as they depend on external qualification processes'). The glass/CPO ramp is therefore pure upside on top of guidance, gated only by downstream qualification timing.
  3. The base business is mid-restructuring. FY2025 EBIT was -EUR 13.5m (adjusted EBIT roughly breakeven at +EUR 0.8m); the North Star transformation program targets a 'double-digit EBIT margin by 2028.' Cost reductions are already visible in Q1 2026. Balance sheet is clean: ~EUR 10m cash, no bank debt, 73.2% equity ratio — the company can fund the LIDE ramp without dilution.
  4. PATH TO 2x: today's ~EUR 528m market cap roughly doubles to ~EUR 1.0-1.1bn by mid-2028 on two tied-out legs — (1) North Star lifts the ~EUR 120m base business to double-digit EBIT margin, and (2) a LIDE/Advanced-Packaging revenue layer of ~EUR 30-40m emerges as TSMC's glass-substrate mass production (planned 2028) and the Intel/Samsung/Absolics roadmaps pull through. ~EUR 155-160m of FY2028 revenue at a semicap-style ~6.5x P/S = ~EUR 1.0bn (~EUR 42/share). See the valuation bridge.
  5. Secular backdrop is exceptional: CPO market modeled to grow from ~$95m (2025) to ~$1.05bn (2034, ~31% CAGR), >800G transceiver shipments 2.6x in 2026, hyperscaler capex ~$725bn in 2026 (+77% YoY). Glass substrates are the chosen CPO platform for optical transparency and panel-level scale — and LIDE sits at the bottleneck.

Continue reading

Read the full LPKFF report

The full thesis — earnings detail, financial model, valuation and price target — is free. Enter your email to unlock the rest of the report.

Unlock the full report →

No account, no payment — just your email. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Disclaimer

This is not financial advice.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.