Akyla AKYLA
Equity Research Defense & Marine Robotics Initiation of Coverage — BUY Last Updated: June 28, 2026

Kraken Robotics Inc. (KRKNF)

Subsea defense robotics at the inflection: standalone guidance for >65% growth, the transformational Covelya deal closing July 2, and a clean path to ~2x by mid-2028. Reported in CAD; USD valuation view included.

Thesis

  1. Kraken is the pure-play arms supplier to the subsea-defense buildout. SAS sonar and pressure-tolerant SeaPower batteries are the payloads going into the exact UUV platforms governments are now funding at scale — US Navy Lionfish (REMUS 300, $347M ceiling / up to 200 vehicles), AUKUS Pillar II's first signature project (UUV payloads, delivering from 2027), NATO Baltic Sentry cable defense and the EU's ~EUR1B cable-security package. The UUV market itself is modeled at a 22.7% CAGR to $19.2B by 2031. Kraken sells the picks-and-shovels into that wave.
  2. The fundamentals already inflected. FY2025 revenue grew 11.9% to C$102.2M at a 62.1% gross margin and C$25.0M adjusted EBITDA (24.4% margin); Q1 2026 accelerated to +35% YoY (C$21.7M) with 2026 product orders already at C$97M. Management guides FY2026 standalone revenue to C$165-175M and adj. EBITDA to C$40-50M — 'over 65%' revenue growth and '80%' EBITDA growth at the midpoint.
  3. Covelya is the step-change. The C$615M acquisition (closing ~Jul 2, 2026) bolts on Sonardyne, EIVA, Forcys, Wavefront, Voyis and Chelsea Technologies — roughly C$249-275M of additional 2025E revenue at a 24% EBITDA margin. Combined, Kraken becomes a ~C$350-380M revenue / ~C$85-90M EBITDA business with a >C$262M visible order book at just 0.8x post-close net leverage.
  4. PATH TO 2x (by mid-2028): the combined entity compounding ~20%+ organically into 20%+ CAGR end-markets takes pro-forma 2027-28 revenue toward ~C$520M at ~26% EBITDA margin (~C$135M). Holding a defensible EV/Revenue in the ~7-8x band (vs. PNG's current ~18-19x P/S and defense-tech comps at 4.6-5.4x EV/Rev but higher growth here) bridges from today's ~C$2.0B cap to ~C$4.0B — roughly a double, implying ~C$13/share. Analyst average target is ~C$10.8 (high C$14), consistent with the double on trajectory delivery.
  5. Risk is concentrated and nameable: material dilution (47.3M bought-deal subscription receipts @ C$8.50 + C$135M stock to the Covelya seller take fully diluted to ~385M shares), integration risk across 12 facilities / ~750 added staff, and a ~18-19x P/S that leaves little room for slippage. Ratings are genuinely mixed (Scotiabank/Raymond James Outperform vs. ATB Cormark Strong Sell). We size the position accordingly but stay long.

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Disclaimer

This is not financial advice.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Kraken reports in CAD; the USD valuation view uses the packet's 1.42 USD/CAD rate. Figures marked kind='estimate'/'computed' are Akila analyst derivations, not company-reported figures; FY2027/28 combined projections and the ~385M fully diluted share count are estimates and are not company-confirmed. Covelya 2025 revenue/EBITDA are company estimates from the acquisition release. Akila Advisory is LONG KRKNF.